Nicolas Baverez: Under Modi’s leadership, India is sinking into the worst crisis it has seen since India and Pakistan gained independence in 1947. It has lost control of the pandemic, becoming the country with the second highest number of coronavirus cases( 4, 4 million), and nearly 75,000 deaths - a grossly underestimated figure.
At the same time, the world`s fifth-largest economy is going to experience a historic recession with a drop of Io% - 14% in its GDP in 2020, with a 24% decline in economic activity in the second quarter - the worst performance among G20 countries. India public debt is expected to rise to 15% of the GDP and unemployment to jump 27%, after 20 million jobs were cut during the first half of the year leading to a social disaster. Several million internal migrant workers were deprived of a livelihood and many now face famine. Several tens of millions of India’s 140 million informal sector workers have fallen below the poverty line, a condition that Gandhi described as "the worst form of violence". Consequently, there has been a drop in school attendance and a sharp increase in child labour.
At the geopolitical level, tensions with China have worsened in Ladakh, in the Himalayas, with the clash that occurred on June 15 which left 20 soldiers dead on the Indian side. Tensions have alwo risen with Pakistan since the abolition of Kashmir’s autonomy status and the strict lockdown imposed by New Delhi in August 2019. De-escalation would be in the interest of all three countries - all nuclear-armed states. However, their leaders, under the pressure of public opinion enflamed by nationalist rhetoric, are engaged in escalation. New Delhi and Beijing have heavily reinforced their military presence in the Himalayas. India, third largest purchaser of arms in the world, is refurbishing its armed forces. This was seen recently with the reception of the first five Rafale aircraft, which are to be deployed at the border with China.
Finally, Modi has drawn closer to the United States, Japan and Australia, in the context of Quad. China is strengthening its military investments while methodically pursuing the encirclement of India through the New Silk Roads, with a massive presence in Pakistan, where the deep-water port of Gwadar will reportedly be used as a Chinese maritime base. China’s influence is also growing in Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Maldives, Seychelles and Sri Lanka. On the industrial level, China is playing on New Delhi`s dependence in the key sectors of technology and pharmaceuticals; on the commercial level, with its trade deficit of $5o billion; and on the financial level, with more than $Io billion in Chinese investments in 2017 and 2019.
The epidemic exacerbated India`s descent into hell. Above all, it highlighted the flaws in Modi`s leadership- impulsive, erratic and incoherent. Confinement came too early, on March 25, and was too strict, which resulted in an early lifting of restrictions on May 12, before the epidemic had peaked, which explains the current uncontrollable situation. The economic recovery plan, limited to 2% of GDP due to the country`s over-indebtedness (70% of GDP at the end of 2019), is “too little, too late”. Above all, Modi has been extremely accommodating towards dictators and autocrats, including Xi Jinping, for the sake of populism, and this has led him to deviate from democratic functioning by buying over members of the opposition and dismantling the rule of law by turning Parliament and the Supreme Court into his vassals
India is at the crossroads. Under Narendra Modi, who figures prominently alongside Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Jair Bolsonaro, India has become a textbook case on the inability of populist leaders to manage crises, due to their incompetence and their inconsistencies. To continue its development and resist China`s hegemonic ambitions, India must make a major change.
The change in question is incompatible with India’s headlong rush into nationalist populism and discrimination against 172 million Muslims, enacted by the Citizenship Law passed on December 11, 2019. Democracy can only survive if the rule of law is restored and ethnic-based nationalist policies are dropped. Containment of China requires an alliance of free nations, indispensable against attacks on the West. India will have to choose between reform or nationalist populism, the rule of law or a nation built along ethnic lines, the free world or China.