Special Correspondent: NarendraModi`s visit to Israel last month was not a routine diplomatic stop. It was a deliberate embrace of Benjamin Netanyahu, staged with parades, embraces and a speech in the Knesset. Within days, Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran, which responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices spiked, Gulf capitals braced for instability, and the region slid deeper into war. Modi`s choice to stand firmly with Israel now looks less like a strategic masterstroke and more like a reckless gamble.

India once prided itself on balancing ties across West Asia. Israel was a partner for defence and technology, the Gulf for energy and trade, Iran for connectivity. This balancing act allowed Delhi to maintain generally good relations with all sides. Modi`s embrace of Israel has shattered that balance. In a region where visibility equals policy, India is now seen as part of the same security architecture that shields Israel while Gaza burns and Iranian cities are bombed. The risks are not abstract. India`s diaspora in the Gulf — over 6.8 million people — faces growing vulnerability. Remittances worth $129 billion in 2024 could be jeopardised if migrant workers find themselves in the crosshairs of public anger.

Economically, India is already paying the price. The closure of Hormuz threatens its energy security, while the Chabahar port project in Iran now looks doomed. For years, Washington pressed India to cut Russian oil imports, narrowing Delhi`s options further. Yet in a surprising twist, the US has now allowed India to resume buying Russian oil in order to bring global prices down. This waiver is not a gift. It is a reflection of Washington`s own vulnerability in a war that has disrupted energy markets. India may benefit in the short term by diversifying supplies, but the larger picture remains grim: Delhi`s dependence on US goodwill exposes its lack of strategic autonomy.

This contradiction is striking. On one hand, Modi has aligned India with Israel and the US, sacrificing ties with Iran and complicating relations with the Arab world. On the other, India is being asked to buy Russian oil to stabilise markets — a reminder that even Washington cannot fully control the fallout of this war. Modi`s gamble has tied India to Western priorities while leaving it exposed to the volatility of a region on fire.

The war has also inflamed public opinion across the Arab world. Debates about a "Greater Israel," once fringe, have entered mainstream discourse, with Israeli leaders and US officials invoking biblical geography and expansionist claims. In this climate, India`s movement toward Tel Aviv may be read as legitimising ambitions that destabilise the region further.

India`s gamble also raises questions about its domestic politics. Modi`s government has often used foreign policy spectacles to bolster nationalist sentiment at home. The Israel visit was presented as proof of India`s rising global stature. Yet the costs of this alignment will be felt most acutely by ordinary Indians — through higher fuel prices, disrupted remittances and the vulnerability of migrant workers.