MT Desk: I was all set to write on why talks between Pakistan and Afghan Taliban are not making any progress, but then came the big headline, `Pakistan, Afghan Taliban reach interim understanding in Istanbul talks.` This takes us to the next level, and the big question now will be whether the ceasefire agreement can convert into an enduring peace agreement. To answer this question, I would like to draw some assumptions by viewing the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship from five different angles: of negative peace, ideology, power politics, deterrence and the Pakistan-India rivalry. The nature of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship is such that if there will ever be peace between the two countries, it will be what political scientists call `negative peace` — peace maintained by the absence of war rather than the presence of goodwill. States act rationally and compromise when the fear is mutual. Pakistan fears spillover of instability and terrorism, and Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for trade and access. This mutual vulnerability can sustain an inter-state relationship which is likely to be powered only by negative peace.

Afghanistan`s foreign policy embodies an ideological mindset shaped by extremist ideological convictions that prioritise belief over strategy. This approach under the Taliban has led Afghanistan to regional and international isolation, thus Afghanistan has a foreign policy that is constrained by ideological rigidity with little strategic flexibility and foresight. Ideology comes from shared values and worldviews. China endured 100 years of humiliation from 1840 to 1940.
Over a hundred years of social and economic injustice, warlordism, feudalism and foreign interference meant that China needed a revolution. The revolution needed an ideology to overthrow exploitation, and the communist revolution in the neighbourhood impressed Chairman Mao, who used it for the creation of a socialist state. What China has achieved is not only a product of an ideological mindset but a strategic one that ran the affairs of the country since the time of Deng Xiaoping and continues today under President Xi Jinping. The lesson that Afghanistan needs to learn is that ideologies rise and fall, such as monarchism, fascism, communism and even liberalism, but what endures is the need for balance that comes not from ideology but strategy.
Realpolitik or power politics embodies Pakistan`s foreign policy towards Afghanistan, which is based on the pursuit of national interests through the use of the threat of power. Pakistan`s altered foreign policy approach towards Afghanistan is to stop convincing the Taliban regime about what is right and start compelling Afghanistan to act in ways that serve the interests of both countries. The foreign policy towards Afghanistan is now more pressure-based than persuasion-based. What Afghanistan needs to understand is that while India`s goodwill can win it friendship, only a lasting strategic partnership with Pakistan can keep both countries aligned.
Understanding Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship under a deterrence framework requires understanding how both countries use the threat of political, military and strategic costs to influence each other`s behaviour without resorting to a full-scale conflict. There are levers of pressure that both countries utilise to dominate the inter-state relationship. Pakistan uses military and economic deterrence, the threat of the use of force and control over trade routes.