Dr. Firoz Mahboob Kamal: The proxy states & the evils: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar were created as the British proxies after dismantling the Osmania Khilafa in World War I. Before the war, there was no such state by these names on the world map. The Muslim Ummah -especially the people of Palestine are the worst victims of this post-World War I imperialists’ geopolitics. Since then, the oil-rich Middle East has become the most favoured hunting ground for the imperialist robbers and the heated playground of geopolitics. The British Empire protected these gulf proxies till World War II. After the demise of the British Empire after World War II, these proxy states became the US proxies. The US keeps its military presence in all these proxy states to sustain its geopolitical hegemony and the unhindered robbery of their wealth.

In the whole Middle East, only Iran happens to be an independent state. After the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran proved to be an incompatible entity with the geopolitics of the imperialist US and its Western allies. The current regime in Iran has become a huge bar against the USA`s political hegemony and robbery. This is indeed the root cause of the current war in the Middle East. The US political culture doesn`t allow such non-compliance of a thirdly world country of the US policy. It is frustrating as well as annoying for the USA that its Venezuela-like war game didn`t work in Iran. So it is the core intent of the US war policy to punish Iran. In fact, President Donald Trump runs the war against Iran on the premise to fulfill his arrogant intent. He even expressed his intention to delete the whole of Iran from the surface of the planet.

The war: the cause and the outcomes: The Arab proxies are not happy with Iran either because of its incompatibility with their own pro-US policy.  So, along with their master state USA, they too want to punish Iran. The war and the political games of current geopolitics are aimed at meeting that end. Hence Iran faces a full US economic cum naval blockade. The UAE has also ended its trade link with Iran. So the Iranian economy is in great crisis. Since it is a survival issue for Iran, its threshold of tolerance stays very high.

There was a US supported attempt to drag Pakistan and Turkey to the war in the name of the Makka Treaty especially to protect Saudi Arabia so far. It proved ineffective. The Saudi military bases and its oil installations have become the targets of repeated Houthi missile attacks, but none from Pakistan and Turkey came to protect them. The Saudi leaders failed to understand that war means shedding blood for a national cause; so one needs to fight his own war. Money can’t buy the blood of a free man. It was in the day of slavery when slaves used to fight and die for the cause of the masters. But those days are gone.  

But Iran has also developed its own proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and People`s Mobilisation Force in Iraq. These Iranian proxies are now showing their biting power. As a result, Iran could also put blockade against the proxy states; so their economy is also in crisis.

The new hope: The US and its Arab proxies now find no easy way out of the self-created quagmire. It was published in the US media that Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders invited the US to attack non-compliant Iran. Now they suffer the consequences of the war they invited. It seems, the ongoing war between the US and Iran is not going to end soon unless one party surrenders. But none of the parties are ready for that. So the war now continues as a war of attrition.

However, there is a huge chance of escalation. All Gulf States now face heavy economic blockade. The economic boom of the UAE is shattered. The oil export of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar is drastically reduced. The tolerance threshold of the people of Saudi Arabia and other proxy Arab states are not as high as among the Iranians. So, the pressure on governments of the proxy states is mounting for an escalation and rapid end of Iranian dominance. Israel wants that too.

But these proxy states can’t do the job alone. They have money but no war skills. Saudi Arabia even can’t fight against the Houthis, let alone fighting against Iran. So, all the gulf proxies are asking the US and other western powers to enter the war more militarily and decisively. But the US likes only the leadership and wants the economic and military burden of war to be on all the regional Arab states as well as on Pakistan and Turkey.

But there is a little chance that Pakistan and Turkey will take that burden. Because these two countries have their own domestic problems; the people do not want war. The Army of Pakistan is already in a huge war against its own people especially in Balochistan. The Pakistan Army has also an undeclared on and off war against Afghanistan. Moreover, more than 20 percent of people in Pakistan are shia. They will vehemently oppose Pakistan’s war against Iran. So any engagement in the quagmire will cause huge escalation of the domestic problems.

So the current geopolitics goes hugely in favour of Iran and works against the US and its Arab proxies. Probably this will work as a huge precursor of new geopolitical dynamics in the Muslim Ummah. So, there is new hope for the Ummah. It is also true that wars not only cause deaths and destruction, but also raise hopes. After all, all great powers were born after great wars. 

Writer: Dr. Firoz Mahboob Kamal is an author of books, newspaper columnist and consultant physician.