Dr. S. K. Akram Ali

Friends are not permanent, but national interest is—this should be the driving force behind any country`s diplomacy and foreign policy. However, due to its geographical location and the negative attitude of its neighbors, Bangladesh cannot truly implement this principle in its absolute sense. Much like Israel, this is an inherent reality for Bangladesh, as both face somewhat similar existential circumstances. However, Israel is a state created by the West, receiving total support for its existence since its inception.

The current conflict involving Israel and the United States against Iran is seen as an Israeli initiative. Moreover, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the United States has prioritized a regime change in Iran. Both the US and Israel are openly challenging the Iranian government, exerting constant pressure to accept their terms. But Iran has accepted the challenge and has been fighting alone for its existence since the revolution. This is an asymmetrical war imposed upon them to force the current government into submission, which is unlikely to happen. Iran will fight to the end for its survival.

Now, let’s turn to our context. Bangladesh was created with the support of India, and they expect Bangladesh to remain under their permanent political control. However, the people want to see Bangladesh as a truly sovereign state, free from India’s hegemonic grip. This has been the primary source of contention between the two countries since the birth of Bangladesh. It is a harsh truth that India will never allow Bangladesh to move out of its political orbit and will do everything possible to maintain its control.

The August Revolution of 1975 pulled the country out of India’s hegemonic control for a few months, but it was the Sepoy-People`s Revolution of November 7th that brought a visionary leader like Ziaur Rahman to power. For the first time, he moved away from the grip of so-called "friends" and established genuine friendships with the West, including the United States and the Muslim world. Friendship with China also improved rapidly during Ziaur Rahman`s tenure. Ershad followed Ziaur Rahman`s foreign policy while keeping India satisfied and was quite successful.

During Khaleda Zia’s government (1991–1996), there was no major shift in foreign policy, and no serious issues were raised by India, although their efforts against the government remained active. Many political pundits believe that General Nasim’s failed military coup was supported by a neighboring country, which eventually paved the way for the Awami League to return to power after twenty long years.

The people soon realized their mistake and placed their trust back in the BNP and Begum Khaleda Zia. The Khaleda Zia government (2001–2006) was not free from threats. In August 2004, a grenade attack on an anti-terrorism rally organized by the Awami League killed 24 people and injured 550. No government would risk creating such chaos in society. Many political analysts view this as clear evidence of an attempt to destabilize her government, possibly with a neighbor`s involvement.

The subsequent political unrest created by the Awami League, including the daylight killing of students in front of Baitul Mukarram in late December 2006, was also a clear act of sabotage against the government. This facilitated Moeen U. Ahmed’s takeover, allegedly at the behest of both India and the United States.

India took advantage of the weakness of the Moeenuddin-Fakhruddin government and forced the Awami League into power through a rigged election in December 2008. The BDR massacre in February 2009 was an attempt to break the backbone of the Bangladesh Army. Soon, Sheikh Hasina`s government emerged as a fascist regime and remained a puppet in the hands of its masters until it was ousted in the July Revolution of 2024.

Bangladesh has been liberated from Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic rule and India’s hegemonic control. While the interim government of Dr. Yunus has attempted to follow a policy of embracing friends and letting go of enemies, it has yet to take a full-fledged shape.

It is now the current government`s turn to maintain a balanced diplomatic relationship with both India and Pakistan. India seems interested in working with the current government and has already shown a positive gesture by supplying 5,000 metric tons of diesel when Bangladesh was in dire need. Priority should also be given to the Padma River water-sharing treaty to build good relations between India and Bangladesh. India must find ways to restore friendship with the people of Bangladesh.

Relationship with Pakistan is equally important for Bangladesh, and they are interested in building a meaningful relationship with us. For a safe future journey, the government must adopt a positive attitude toward building strong diplomatic ties with Pakistan; there is no alternative. It is believed that if Bangladesh faces any military threat from its neighbors, Pakistan will not hesitate to support us. In the changed political environment after the July Revolution of 2024, building a strong relationship has become an urgent need for the people of Bangladesh.

Undoubtedly, the relationship with the United States is crucial for Bangladesh, but recent wars have put us in a difficult dilemma. We cannot abandon the United States, nor can we openly support Iran’s claims. The people of Iran are our brothers, and our moral support should be with them. As a developing nation, we have no choice but to remain neutral, and the current government has made the right decision. We must be very cautious while working with the United States because the changed political environment is a product of their initiative. How can we ignore the reality of their support at this moment? Although the people of Bangladesh are going through extreme trauma due to the war, it is not possible to abandon them completely.

A strong relationship with China is also essential for Bangladesh, but it must be maintained with extreme diplomatic tact, balancing between the US and China. Undoubtedly, keeping both happy simultaneously is a matter of professional skill. The US and India will never appreciate Bangladesh developing close diplomatic ties with China.

We cannot ignore the existence of our neighbors, and we must live with India. The new India-Bangladesh relationship must be based on equal status. India must understand the importance of this relationship and act accordingly for a long-lasting bond in the future. They must respect the current psyche of the Bangladeshi people. In the post-revolution political landscape, "Dada-giri" (hegemonic bullying) or a "Big Brother" attitude will no longer work.

The relationship with Myanmar is no less important. The repatriation of Rohingyas largely depends on the goodwill of the Myanmar government. We must take adequate initiatives to build a strong and meaningful relationship with Myanmar in our national interest. Again, the repatriation process will not succeed without China`s support.

Although Tarique Rahman’s government might face a complex situation, his foreign minister is capable of establishing a balanced diplomatic relationship, keeping the realities of the current global political situation in mind. The impact of war could bring disaster to the country, and the government should have a contingency plan to face it with confidence. The people of Bangladesh will never again accept India’s hegemonic role. The current government must not forget the present reality of the Bangladeshi people`s mindset.

Editor, Military History Journal